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Code examples, market analysis, and data quality deep-dives.

How Much Revenue Does a Dollar of Acquisitions Buy? Growth Decomposition in Python
Do Companies Buy Back Stock at Good Prices? Dollar-Weighted Analysis in Python
What Data You Need for Comparable Company Analysis
How Much Does a Stock Fall on Its Ex-Dividend Date? Event Study in Python
How Seasonal Is Quarterly Revenue? Fiscal Quarter Share Analysis in Python
Do Reported Financials Follow Benford's Law? First-Digit Analysis in Python
What Is Book Value? Why Price-to-Book Stopped Working
How Far Apart Do S&P 500 Stocks Move? Cross-Sectional Return Dispersion in Python
Fama-French Factor Data: Download or Build Your Own?
How Much Does the Rebalance Date Change a Backtest? 21 Rebalance Days in Python
Does Trading Volume Predict Tomorrow's Volatility? Out-of-Sample Test in Python
Do Company Insiders Predict Their Own Stock's Returns? Form 4 Cross-Section in Python
How Many Independent Bets Are There in the S&P 500? Principal Component Analysis in Python
Can a Company's Revenue Be Forecast From Its Own History? Out-of-Sample Test in Python
What Is EBITDA and Why Do Sources Disagree?
Does the Turn-of-the-Month Effect Still Work? Calendar Anomaly Test in Python
Is the S&P 500 Getting More Capital Intensive? Capex Analysis in Python
Do High-Accrual Companies Underperform? Accruals Screening in Python
What Does a Financial Data API Cost?
Do Price Gaps Get Filled? Gap-Fill Rates Against a Random Walk in Python
What Expected Returns Does the S&P 500 Imply? Reverse Optimization in Python
Which Sectors Are Really Cyclical? Revenue Betas vs Stock Betas in Python
How to Build a Stock Dataset for Machine Learning
Comparing Companies With Different Fiscal Year Ends
How Much Has Corporate Debt Actually Repriced? Effective Interest Rates in Python
Does Deferred Revenue Predict Next Quarter's Sales? Leading Indicator Test in Python
How Much Debt Is Hidden in Operating Leases? Lease-Adjusted Leverage in Python
How Much Do Profits Move When Sales Move? Operating Leverage Regression in Python
How Concentrated Is the S&P 500? Index Weight Analysis in Python
How Long Is Cash Tied Up in a Business? Cash Conversion Cycle Analysis in Python
Broker API vs Data API for Historical Stock Data
Where to Get Free Cash Flow Data for Stocks in Python
Are Stock Returns Skewed? Return Skewness in Python
Do High-Margin Companies Trade at Higher Multiples? EV/Sales in Python
How Much Profit Becomes Cash? Free Cash Flow Conversion in Python
Which Sectors Lead Out of a Market Bottom? Sector Recovery Analysis in Python
Are Buybacks Funded by Cash Flow or by Debt? S&P 500 Payout Analysis in Python
What to Look for in Fundamentals Data
Does Cash on the Balance Sheet Cushion a Crash? Quintile Sorts in Python
Do Corporate Insiders Time the Market? S&P 500 Insider Buying Breadth in Python
Does Unstable Volatility Warn of Deeper Drawdowns? Vol-of-Vol Sorts in Python
Does Fast Asset Growth Predict Weak Stock Returns? Decile Sorts in Python
How to Replace yfinance in a Python Script
Does the Nasdaq-100 Index Effect Still Exist? Event Study in Python
Does the Piotroski F-Score Still Work? Quality Screening in Python
How Many S&P 500 Stocks Beat the Index? Return Breadth Analysis in Python
Why Beta Differs Between Data Sources
Where to Get Historical Dividend Data for Stocks
Does a High Dividend Yield Predict a Dividend Cut? Yield-Trap Screening in Python
Do Old Ticker Symbols Still Point to the Same Company? S&P 500 Ticker Recycling in Python
What Growth Is Priced Into the S&P 500? Reverse DCF in Python
Ticker vs CIK vs FIGI: Which Company ID to Use
Does Illiquidity Still Pay? Amihud Measure in the S&P 500 in Python
Where to Get R&D Spending Data for Public Companies
Does R&D Spending Predict Revenue Growth? Cross-Sectional Test in Python
What Actually Drives Return on Equity? DuPont Decomposition in Python
What Data Do You Need to Measure Portfolio Risk?
Does a 60/40 Portfolio Actually Cut Drawdowns? Stocks and Bonds in Python
Do Steady Margins Mean Calmer Stocks? Cross-Sectional Analysis in Python
Do Sectors Diversify When It Matters? Conditional Correlation in Python
How to Get Historical Market Cap Data in Python
How Much of the S&P 500 Survives 20 Years? Index Turnover Analysis in Python
Does Joining the S&P 500 Bring New Institutional Owners? 13F Event Study in Python
Is Volatility Seasonal? Calendar Month Analysis of Realized Volatility in Python
Does Fast Revenue Growth Force Companies to Borrow? Cash Funding Analysis in Python
How Far Back Does SEC EDGAR Data Go?
Are One-Time Charges Really One-Time? Charge Frequency Analysis in Python
Does Buying the Dip Work? Short-Term Reversal by Volatility Regime in Python
Alpha Vantage vs Massive vs xfinlink for Fundamentals
How Long Does a Stock Take to Recover From a 50% Fall? Drawdown Analysis in Python
Do Companies That Shrink Their Share Count Outperform? Net Buyback Yield in Python
How Much Does the Dow's Price Weighting Distort It? Index Weighting Analysis in Python
How to Get SEC Form 4 Insider Trading Data in Python
Can Anything Predict Next Month's Stock Returns? Out-of-Sample R-Squared Testing in Python
How Much of a Stock's Return Comes From Its Sector? Variance Decomposition in Python
Altman Z-Score: Where To Get It in Python
Do Value Screens Agree on Which Stocks Are Cheap? Multiple Overlap Analysis in Python
Annual vs Quarterly Financial Data: Which to Use
Do High Returns on Capital Persist? ROIC Fade Analysis in Python
Does Past Beta Predict Future Beta? Beta Stability Testing in Python
Do Defensive Sectors Actually Defend? Up and Down Capture in Python
How to Choose a Financial Data API
Do Small Caps Actually Beat Large Caps? Size Premium Test in Python
What If You Miss the Market's Best Days? Extreme-Day Analysis in Python
Does Rebalancing Add Return? Fixed-Weight vs Drift Portfolios in Python
Which S&P 500 Companies Are Closest to Default? Merton Distance-to-Default in Python
What Happens to Stocks Removed From the S&P 500? Replacement Pair Analysis in Python
Does the Golden Cross Work? 50/200 Moving Average Crossover Backtest in Python
Financial Data for Academic Finance Research
Does Skipping the Most Recent Month Improve Momentum? S&P 500 Decile Sorts in Python
Does Cointegration Survive Out of Sample? Pairs Trading Validation in Python
Which Dividends Are Not Covered by Cash? Free-Cash-Flow Coverage Screening in Python
GICS vs SIC vs NAICS: Which Industry Classification to Use
How Many Stocks Does It Take to Diversify? Random Portfolio Simulation in Python
How Many Days of Data Does a Volatility Estimate Need? Range-Based Estimators in Python
How Much of S&P 500 Cash Flow Is Stock Compensation? Cross-Sectional Analysis in Python
What Is a 13F Filing? Institutional Holdings Explained
Does Revenue Growth Explain Profit Growth? Cross-Sectional Decomposition in Python
How Much of the Nasdaq 100 Is Already in the S&P 500? Index Overlap Analysis in Python
How Often Does a 99% Value-at-Risk Limit Actually Break? VaR Backtesting in Python
Real-Time vs End-of-Day Market Data: Which Do You Need?
How Concentrated Are S&P 500 Earnings? Point-in-Time Index Analysis in Python
Does Volatility Scale With the Square Root of Time? Variance Ratio Test in Python
Does Goodwill Distort the Price-to-Book Screen? Goodwill-Adjusted Valuation in Python
How Are Shares Outstanding Reported (and Why They Disagree)
Do Low-Volatility Stocks Deliver Better Risk-Adjusted Returns? S&P 500 Quintile Sorts in Python
Does Trend Following Beat Buy and Hold? Time-Series Momentum in Python
Has the Stock-Bond Correlation Flipped? 60/40 Portfolio Risk in Python
What API to Use for a Stock Screener
Which Assets Hedge Inflation Shocks? Macro Factor Betas in Python
Does Covariance Shrinkage Beat the Sample Covariance? Minimum-Variance Portfolios in Python
Do Faster Inventory Turns Mean Thinner Margins? Gross Margin Return on Inventory in Python
SEC EDGAR API vs Fundamentals API: Which to Use
Does Fast Earnings Growth Persist? Rank Correlation Analysis in Python
Split Adjustment Explained: Adjusted Close vs Close
Which Trading Day of the Month Pays Best? Turn-of-the-Month Analysis in Python
Can You Use Yahoo Finance Data Commercially?
How Many Independent Bets Does a Nine-Sector Portfolio Give You? Eigenvalue Analysis in Python
Which Volatility Forecast Wins One Month Ahead? HAR vs EWMA in Python
How Concentrated Are Institutional Equity Portfolios? Form 13F Concentration Analysis in Python
Do Stocks Earn Their Returns Overnight or Intraday? Return Decomposition in Python
When Do Corporate Insiders Actually Trade? Form 4 Timing Analysis in Python
Data Requirements for Backtesting a Trading Strategy
What Is Survivorship Bias in Backtesting?
Do High Dividend Yields Come From Bigger Payouts or Falling Prices? Yield Decomposition in Python
Do Stocks Fall Harder Than They Rise? Downside Beta vs Upside Beta in Python
Does Volatility Targeting Improve Sharpe Ratios? Seven-Asset Backtest in Python
Free Stock Market Data APIs: What You Actually Get
How to Give an LLM Financial Data With an MCP Server
Does Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Survive Real Filing Dates? PEAD Event Study in Python
Do Insider Buying Clusters Predict Returns? Signal Testing in Python
Does the S&P 500 Index Effect Still Exist? Event Study in Python
Are Companies Leaving the S&P 500 Faster Than They Used To? Index Survival Analysis in Python
Does Gross Profitability Predict Stock Returns? Quintile Factor Test in Python
What Growth Rate Is the Market Pricing In? Reverse DCF in Python
Does a Strong Balance Sheet Cushion Drawdowns? Leverage and Downside Risk in Python
Does Ticker Recycling Corrupt a Mean-Reversion Backtest? Entity-Resolved Z-Scores in Python
How Much of a Growth Screen's Backtested Edge Is Survivorship Bias? Point-in-Time Index Testing in Python
Why Do Leveraged ETFs Decay? Measuring Volatility Drag in Python
Are Consumer Staples Margins Shrinking Under Inflation? Gross Margin Trend Analysis in Python
Do Weak Jobs Reports Predict Market Drawdowns? NFP Surprise Event Study in Python
Is the Rotation From Tech to Industrials Backed by Earnings? Relative EPS Growth Analysis in Python
Is the Semiconductor Rally Broadening Beyond NVIDIA? Return Dispersion Analysis in Python
Which Stocks Benefit Most When Oil Prices Fall? Oil Beta Screening in Python
Do Bond Returns Predict Stock Returns? Granger Causality Test in Python
Which Stocks Actually Drive Portfolio Returns? Shapley Value Attribution in Python
Does "Sell in May" Still Work? Calendar Anomaly Backtest in Python
How to Build Complete Price History Through Ticker Changes? Entity Resolution in Python
Are KO and PEP Cointegrated? Pairs Trading Signal Construction in Python
Which Commodities Have the Strongest Momentum? Rotation Backtest in Python
Which Commodity ETFs Have the Worst Tail Risk? Expected Shortfall in Python
Are Gold Miners Leveraged Gold Bets? Rolling Beta Analysis in Python
Does the Base-Metals-to-Gold Ratio Lead Cyclical Stocks? Signal Test in Python
Can Risk Parity Tame Commodity Volatility? Portfolio Optimization in Python
Are Power Stocks Becoming an AI Infrastructure Trade? Momentum Screening in Python
Which AI Chip Stocks Have Margin Momentum? Profitability Trend Analysis in Python
Which AI Stocks Are Cheapest Relative to Growth? Growth-Adjusted Valuation in Python
Does AI Stock Leadership Persist? Momentum Backtest in Python
Which AI Stocks Have the Cleanest Balance Sheets? Net Cash Screening in Python
Can Risk Parity Reduce Mega-Cap Drawdowns? Portfolio Optimization in Python
Which Growth Stocks Are Self-Funding? Cash-Flow Quality Screening in Python
Which Sectors Struggle When the Dollar Rallies? Sector Rotation Analysis in Python
Do Cheap Stocks Hold Up When Bonds Sell Off? Valuation Rotation in Python
Does the Nasdaq 100 Have Better Growth Quality Than the Dow? Index Constituent Analysis in Python
Do Healthcare Cash-Flow Margins Predict Returns? Signal Evaluation in Python
Which Dividend Stocks Survive a Cash-Flow Stress Test? Dividend Screening in Python
Does Heavy Insider Selling Predict Weak Returns? Insider Flow Test in Python
Can Quality Screens Reduce Small-Cap Balance-Sheet Risk? Russell 2000 Test in Python
Which Retailers Have Positive Operating Leverage? Margin Screening in Python
Is MSTR a Leveraged Bitcoin Proxy? Rolling Beta Analysis in Python
Is Micron's Memory Cycle Recovering? Inventory and Margin Forecasting in Python
Which Sectors Work When Bonds Rally? Rate-Sensitive Rotation in Python
Do One-Month Price Extremes Reverse? Signal Evaluation in Python
Do Low-Volatility S&P 500 Stocks Reduce Drawdowns? Factor Test in Python
Is AI Capex Paying Back Fast Enough? Revenue Hurdle Forecasting in Python
Could Shorter AI Asset Lives Hit Earnings? Depreciation Stress Test in Python
How Much AI Capex Risk Can a Portfolio Remove? Constrained Optimization in Python
Is the AI Capex Trade Crowded? Rolling Volatility and Sector Rotation in Python
Did the AI Boom Come From Existing S&P 500 Members? Point-in-Time Momentum Test in Python
Is AI Revenue Circular? Customer-Vendor Capex Loop Analysis in Python
Is the AI Trade Connected to Private Credit? Rolling Correlation Network in Python
Is Apollo More Balance-Sheet Sensitive Than Peers? Leverage Screen in Python
Are AI Earnings Supported by Cash Flow? Accrual and Capex Screen in Python
Can Defensive Stocks Hedge AI Drawdowns? Basket Regime Test in Python
How Fast Does the Market Price In Fed Decisions? FOMC Event Study in Python
How Much Are Options Sellers Overpaid? The Variance Risk Premium in Python
Which Companies Have the Worst Earnings Quality? Sloan Accrual Screen with Geographic Revenue Data in Python
Does the Oil-to-Gold Ratio Signal Recessions? XLE/GLD Backtest in Python
Is AI Spending Crowding Out Free Cash Flow? Capex Sustainability Across the Mag 7 in Python
Does a Long Energy / Short Bonds Portfolio Capture Inflation Surprises? Factor Construction in Python
Can a Hidden Markov Model Detect Oil Market Regimes? HMM Analysis in Python
Do Grain Prices Predict Food Inflation? Granger Causality Test in Python
Does the Corporate Credit Spread Predict Stock Market Crashes? BAA-AAA Spread Analysis in Python
Do Oil Stocks Hedge Inflation? Rolling Beta Analysis in Python
Which Stocks Are Most Rate-Sensitive? Equity Duration via Bond Beta in Python
Which Companies Have the Highest Accrual Ratios? Earnings Quality Screening in Python
Is Alpha Persistent or Decaying? Rolling Sharpe Ratio Analysis in Python
Are Markets Trending or Mean-Reverting? Hurst Exponent Analysis in Python
Is Consumer Discretionary vs Staples a Leading Indicator? XLY/XLP Ratio Analysis in Python
Does Heavy Capex Predict Future Stock Returns? Capital Expenditure Analysis in Python
How to Estimate Cost of Equity Using CAPM in Python
Is Volatility Predictable? Testing for Volatility Clustering in Python
Which Industrials Are Overleveraged? Net Debt to EBITDA Screening in Python
GM Before and After Bankruptcy: Why Entity Resolution Matters for Financial Data
What Is Adjusted Beta? Merrill Lynch Beta Shrinkage in Python
How Good Is a Stock Pick? Information Ratio and Tracking Error in Python
Do Stock Returns Follow a Normal Distribution? Testing for Fat Tails in Python
Which Large Caps Have the Highest Free Cash Flow Yield? FCF Screening in Python
Which Sectors Won Over 5 Years? Sector Rotation Analysis in Python
How to Forecast Stock Volatility with GARCH Models in Python
Are Stock Prices Mean-Reverting? Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test in Python
How to Calculate CAPM Alpha and Beta with Regression in Python
How to Compare Sector Sharpe Ratios and Sortino Ratios in Python
DELL: Why Stitching Historical Price Data Together Is Wrong
How to Analyze Drawdown and Recovery for Bank Stocks in Python
How to Screen SaaS Stocks by Revenue Growth and Cash Flow in Python
How to Screen REITs by Dividend Yield and Valuation in Python
How Correlated Are the Magnificent 7? Intra-Group Correlation in Python
AAPL vs XOM: Do Individual Stocks Have Seasonal Patterns?
How to Rank Large-Cap Stocks by Momentum in Python
How to Build a Multi-Endpoint Financial Dashboard in Python
How to Compare Volatility Across Energy Stocks in Python
How to Screen Healthcare Stocks by Valuation in Python
How to Build a Sector Correlation Matrix for Portfolio Diversification in Python
How to Find Oversold and Overbought Stocks Using Z-Scores in Python
How to Measure Earnings Quality: Cash Flow vs Net Income in Python
How to Build a Multi-Factor Stock Screen in Python (Value + Momentum + Quality)
How to Build a Simple DCF Model for Any Stock in Python
How to Screen Tech Stocks by Revenue Growth in Python
How to Screen Stocks by Balance Sheet Health in Python
Is "Sell in May" Real? SPY Monthly Seasonality Over 10 Years
How to Compare Sector Performance YTD Using Python
How to Screen Dividend Stocks by Yield and Quality in Python
How to Calculate Max Drawdown and Recovery Time for Any Stock in Python
How to Compare Profitability Across Mega-Cap Tech Stocks in Python
Why Ticker Symbols Are Unreliable: The Recycling Problem Every Quant Should Know
How to Calculate and Compare Stock Volatility in Python
How to Screen Blue-Chip Stocks by P/E Ratio in Python
How to Track Companies Through Ticker Changes, Bankruptcies, and Renames in Python
S&P 500 Turnover: How Much the Index Has Changed Since 2010
How to Calculate Stock Beta and Correlation in Python
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How Much Revenue Does a Dollar of Acquisitions Buy? Growth Decomposition in Python

What’s the question?

Revenue growth is the headline number in almost every equity story, and the income statement does not say where it came from. A company that grew revenue 8 percent a year for a decade might have built that growth by selling more of what it already made, or it might have bought it, one acquisition at a time, using cash that could have gone to shareholders instead. The two look identical on the top line and are worth very different amounts.

The cash flow statement separates them. Cash spent on acquisitions is disclosed every year as its own line, so the total a company spent buying other companies over a decade is a matter of record. Setting that total against the revenue the company gained over the same decade gives a rate: how much annual revenue arrived per dollar spent.

The rate matters because it is the exchange the acquirer is making. A company paying a dollar for 50 cents of annual revenue is buying at two times sales, and whether that is sensible depends on the margin and durability of the revenue it bought. A company that grew without spending anything is running a different business model, and the comparison between the two is what this measures.

The approach

The sample is every company that sat in the S&P 500 at any year end between 2014 and 2024, addressed by entity identifier so that a rename does not split a company’s history into two shorter ones. Fiscal years 2014 through 2024 give eleven annual observations.

  1. Derive each row’s year from its period end rather than its fiscal-year label, which keeps 52-week and January-ending filers in the right place.
  2. Keep companies with at least nine annual periods and revenue above 500 million dollars in the first of them. The revenue floor matters because every ratio here divides by starting revenue, and a small denominator produces a large number that means nothing.
  3. Sum cash acquisition spending across the decade, counting only the years where it was positive, so that a divestiture in one year does not cancel a purchase in another.
  4. Express both spending and revenue growth as multiples of starting revenue, then fit a line through the origin. The slope is the answer: cents of additional annual revenue per dollar spent.

Nothing here establishes causation. A company that spends heavily on acquisitions may also be operating in a growing market, and the measurement cannot separate the two. What it can do is put a number on how the two travel together, and give a baseline from the companies that spent nothing at all.

Code

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import xfinlink as xfl

xfl.set_api_key("YOUR_API_KEY")  # free at https://xfinlink.com/signup

ids = set()
for y in range(2014, 2025):
    ids.update(int(i) for i in xfl.index("sp500", as_of="%d-12-31" % y)["entity_id"].dropna())

fun = xfl.fundamentals(entity_id=sorted(ids), start="2013-06-30", end="2025-12-31",
                       period_type="annual", fields=["revenue", "acquisitions_net"],
                       max_rows=60000)
fun["period_end"] = pd.to_datetime(fun["period_end"])
fun["year"] = fun["period_end"].dt.year - (fun["period_end"].dt.month <= 6).astype(int)
fun = fun[(fun["year"] >= 2014) & (fun["year"] <= 2024)]

rows = []
for eid, g in fun.groupby("entity_id"):
    g = g.sort_values("year")
    first, last = g.iloc[0], g.iloc[-1]
    r0, r1 = first["revenue"], last["revenue"]
    if len(g) < 9 or pd.isna(r0) or pd.isna(r1) or r0 < 500 or r1 <= 0:
        continue
    spend = float(g["acquisitions_net"].clip(lower=0).sum())
    rows.append({"ticker": last["ticker"], "sector": last["gics_sector"],
                 "rev0": r0, "rev1": r1, "spend": spend,
                 "intensity": spend / r0, "rev_growth": (r1 - r0) / r0,
                 "cagr": (r1 / r0) ** (1 / (last["year"] - first["year"])) - 1})

res = pd.DataFrame(rows).dropna(subset=["sector"])
x, y = res["intensity"].values, res["rev_growth"].values
print((x * y).sum() / (x * x).sum(), np.corrcoef(x, y)[0, 1])

Full script with formatting and visualisation: acquisitions-revenue-growth-python.py

Output

Two panels. The left panel scatters revenue growth over the decade against acquisition spending as a multiple of starting revenue for 562 S&P 500 companies, with a fitted line through the origin at a slope of 0.79. The right panel shows median revenue CAGR rising across quintiles of acquisition spending, from 1.86 percent for the least acquisitive companies to 9.46 percent for the most acquisitive.
Point-in-time S&P 500 rosters at each year end 2014-2024
companies with >=9 annual periods and revenue above $500m at the start: 562
total acquisition spending in the sample: $3.74 trillion
companies spending nothing on acquisitions in the decade: 68

added revenue against acquisition spending, both as a multiple of starting revenue
  slope through the origin  0.793
  correlation               0.306
  pooled: $6.59tn of extra annual revenue against $3.74tn spent = 176 cents of annual revenue per dollar

quintiles of acquisition spending as a share of starting revenue
                        n  spend  cagr  growth
q
Q1 least acquisitive  113    0.0  1.86    20.2
Q2                    112    9.7  2.82    32.1
Q3                    112   28.8  3.82    45.5
Q4                    112   75.2  5.29    67.4
Q5 most acquisitive   113  227.6  9.46   144.0

by sector
                         n  intensity  cagr
sector
Health Care             63       83.4  7.37
Information Technology  70       82.0  7.36
Communication Services  23       41.0  3.95
Real Estate             34       40.0  5.89
Materials               29       31.3  3.25
Industrials             81       29.3  4.56
Consumer Staples        39       26.6  3.10
Financials              84       25.2  5.69
Utilities               30       18.6  1.68
Consumer Discretionary  74       10.3  4.14
Energy                  35        8.5 -0.30

the ten heaviest acquirers, spending against starting revenue
ticker                            name   rev0    rev1   spend  intensity  cagr
  AVGO                    BROADCOM INC 4269.0 51574.0 74440.0       17.4  28.3
   AMT             AMERICAN TOWER CORP 4100.0 10127.2 35183.8        8.6   9.5
   ROP          ROPER TECHNOLOGIES INC 3549.5  7039.2 25787.6        7.3   7.1
   ICE Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. 4221.0 11761.0 26581.0        6.3  10.8
  CPAY                      CORPAY INC 1199.4  3974.6  7272.5        6.1  12.7
  PANW          PALO ALTO NETWORKS INC  598.2  8027.5  3552.2        5.9  29.6
   TDG             TRANSDIGM GROUP INC 2372.9  7940.0 12624.1        5.3  12.8
  WDAY                     WORKDAY INC  787.9  8446.0  4182.5        5.3  26.8
   CRM                  SALESFORCE INC 5373.6 37895.0 28210.5        5.2  21.6
   ADI              ANALOG DEVICES INC 2864.8  9427.2 14197.4        5.0  12.6

companies that bought nothing: median revenue CAGR 2.38% (n=68)
companies in the top quintile: median revenue CAGR 9.46%

What this tells us

The relationship is monotone across all five quintiles, which is unusual for a cross-sectional sort of this kind. Median revenue growth runs 1.86, 2.82, 3.82, 5.29 and 9.46 percent a year as acquisition spending rises, and the top quintile grows more than five times as fast as the bottom. Companies that grew fast bought a lot.

Three different numbers answer the per-dollar question, and the gap between them is the more useful finding. The slope through the origin puts 79 cents of additional annual revenue against every dollar spent. The pooled figure, which divides all 6.59 trillion dollars of added revenue by all 3.74 trillion spent, gives 176 cents. The median company in the top quintile spent 2.28 times its starting revenue and grew revenue by 1.44 times, which is nearer 63 cents.

The pooled figure is the one to distrust. It credits acquisitions with every dollar of revenue growth in the sample, including the growth of companies that bought almost nothing, so it functions as a ceiling rather than an estimate. The 68 companies that spent nothing at all over the decade set the floor: they grew revenue at a median 2.38 percent a year, which is close to the general price level and is what organic growth looks like for a large American company without acquisitions. Subtracting a baseline of that size from the top quintile’s growth leaves roughly half a dollar of extra annual revenue per dollar spent.

The correlation is 0.306, so acquisition spending accounts for under a tenth of the variation in growth across these companies. Spending is a real part of the story and nowhere near the whole of it.

Sector patterns follow the same line. Health care and information technology are the two most acquisitive sectors, at a median 83 and 82 percent of starting revenue spent, and they are also the two fastest growing, at 7.4 percent a year each. Energy sits at the other end with a median 8.5 percent spent and revenue that shrank slightly over the decade, which reflects the commodity price in 2024 against 2014 more than any decision about acquisitions. Broadcom is the extreme case in the sample: it spent 17.4 times its 2014 revenue and ended the decade with twelve times the revenue it started with.

So what?

When a company reports 8 percent revenue growth, look at cash spent on acquisitions in the same years before treating that growth as evidence of anything about the underlying business. The 68 non-acquirers here grew at 2.38 percent, so a large company growing at 8 percent without buying anything is doing something genuinely different from one growing at 8 percent while spending most of its free cash flow on purchases.

The exchange rate is the number to compute for any specific company: cumulative acquisition spending divided by the revenue added over the same window. Roughly half a dollar of annual revenue per dollar spent is the rough benchmark from this sample after allowing for organic growth, which is another way of saying the index paid something like two times sales for what it bought. A company well above that rate is either buying cheaply or buying revenue that arrives with better margins, and both are worth confirming rather than assuming.

The same measurement doubles as a forecasting check. A revenue projection that extends a historical growth rate forward assumes the acquisitions continue, since the history contains them. Separating the two before extrapolating is what stops a decade of purchases from turning into a permanent organic growth rate on a spreadsheet.

Built with xfinlink — free financial data API for Python. pip install -U xfinlink

Built with xfinlink — free financial data API for Python. pip install -U xfinlink
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